Daily Market Outlook, June 27, 2023
Munnelly’s Market Commentary…
Asian equity markets had a mixed performance overnight as the risk sentiment gradually improved following a mostly negative performance in the US market. The major indices in the US were subdued as the quarter-end approached, with the Nasdaq underperforming due to weakness in the technology and communications sectors. The Nikkei 225 index experienced pressure, extending its pullback from the 33K handle. Speculation increased that the recent weakness in the currency could prompt the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to make adjustments to its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. On the other hand, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong Shanghai Composite index both rose. Hong Kong's market was led by gains in the technology and property sectors, supported by the People's Bank of China's continued liquidity efforts. Additionally, Premier Li pledged to implement effective policy measures, and there were reports of US Treasury Secretary Yellen planning a trip to China early next month, indicating potential positive developments in US-China relations.
With major central bank updates now behind us, the focus in the market shifts towards seeking further guidance from policymakers regarding future interest rate decisions. The European Central Bank is currently hosting its annual forum, featuring speakers from the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. Tomorrow's panel, including the Bank of England's Bailey, is expected to be a highlight. Today, ECB President Lagarde's opening comments are eagerly awaited for insights into future euro rate developments. Additionally, BoE policymakers Tenreyro and Dhingra, who dissented from last week's UK rate hike, are scheduled to speak today. Tenreyro will argue that recent inflationary pressures have been driven primarily by temporary supply-side shocks that are expected to ease. Dhingra will address the Women in Economics network.
Stateside, durable goods orders for May are anticipated to show a sharp decline, largely influenced by volatility in the transportation sector. However, orders from other durable goods producers are projected to have a modest increase compared to the previous month, although still below last year's levels, indicating the challenges faced by manufacturing sectors worldwide. On a positive note, non-defense capital goods orders and shipments have experienced significant growth since the beginning of the year, potentially driven by incentives provided by the Biden administration to promote green investment. US consumer confidence measures continue to lag behind pre-Covid levels, likely reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and higher interest rates. The June reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment indicator showed a larger-than-expected rebound from the low recorded in May but remained below the levels seen at the beginning of the year. Today, the Conference Board's consumer confidence reading for June is also expected to show an increase, although it should be noted that the two measures do not always move in sync.
CFTC Data As Of 23-06-23
(USD net spec short grew in Jun 14-20 period; $IDX -0.76%
EUR$ +1.15% in period, specs -7,173 contracts into strength, now +144,649
$JPY +1.31% in period, JPY soft amid rate divergence, specs -3,680 contracts
GBP$ +1.21%, specs get long ahead of CPI/BoE, +39,873 contracts now +46,608
Specs guessed right higher CPI, +50bp BoE but GBP$ -150 pips from weeks high
AUD$ +0.3% in period, specs +12,129 contracts on hawkish RBA, now -33.5k
BTC +8.96%, specs 346 contracts into strength, halved long to +397 contracts (Source: Reuters)
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0875 (592M), 1.0895-1.0905 (1.3BLN), 1.0910-15 (1.3BLN)
1.1000 (611M)
USD/CHF: 0.9000 (468M) . GBP/USD: 1.2590-1.2600 (412M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8570 (190M), 0.8600 (315M), 0.8650 (401M), 0.8700 (312M)
AUD/USD: 0.6685-90 (638M), 0.6725 (300M)
Overnight News of Note
ECB, Peers Must Raise Hike Rates Further, IMF’s Gopinath Says
Yellen Plans July China Trip While US Readies Investment Curbs
China Remains On Track To Hit Growth Targets, Premier Li Says
China Extend Fight Against Weak Yuan As Drops Unsettle PBoC
China’s State Banks Selling Dollars Offshore To Slow Yuan Drop
Japan FinMin: To Respond Appropriately If FX Moves Excessive
US Denies Any Role In Russia Uprising As Allies Watch And Wait
Putin Blasts Wagner Traitors After Prigozhin Denies Coup Attempt
ECB’s Simkus Says At Least One More Rate Hike Will Be Needed
UK Shop Price Inflation Dropped In June, Industry Figures Shows
Saudi Aramco Sees 'Sound' Oil Outlook On China, India Demand
Nvidia Bring Its AI Computing Platform To Cloud Firm Snowflake
(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4340
Below 4330 opens 4300
Primary support is 4300
Primary objective is 4580
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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EURUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearsih Below 1.0920
Below 1.0880 opens 1.0830
Primary support is 1.0666
Primary objective is 1.1050
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2750
Below 1.27 opens 1.2650
Primary support is 1.2680
Primary objective 1.2880
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 142.40 Target Hit, New Pattern Emerging
Below 141.90 opens 140.90
Primary support is 139.50
Primary objective is 144.50
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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AUDUSD Bias:Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below .6806
Below .6720 opens .6648
Primary support is .648
Primary objective is .6917
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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BTCUSD Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 29500
Below 28000 opens 26900
Primary resistance is 27400
Primary objective is 32750
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!