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Daily Market Outlook, November 10, 2022
“Crypto carnage contagion strikes global risk sentiment, the crypto space faces its own Lehman moment as FTX implodes from a $32 billion dollar enterprise to being valued at $1 all within 24hrs. Asian markets followed Wall Street's lead and leaked lower overnight ahead of today's critical US inflation data, sentiment in Asian markets was weighed down by a combination of concerns, rising China Covid cases and the mixed mid term election results in the US. Today traders will brace for a potential tape bomb from yet another hotter than expected inflation print, in recent releases the Core metric, excluding food and energy has surprised to the upside printing 40year highs in Spetemeber at 6.6%, markets expect another increase today to 6.7%, however, market watchers seem to coalesce around a potential decrease in the headline figure from last months eye watering 8.8%, analysts have pencilled in an 8.7% read for today, if this fails to materialise expect further declines in US markets to unfold, also worth keeping one eye on the wires for additional developments in the FTX drama as further information regarding exposure to the exchange collapse will also weigh on risk sentiment ...”
Overnight Headlines
Bitcoin Price Hits Multi-Year Low, Analysts Expect Further Downside - CoinTelegraph
Binance Walks Away From Deal To Acquire FTX - CoinDesk
US Justice Department Looking Into FTX Turmoil During SEC Probe - BBG
Warnock, Walker Head To Potentially Decisive Senate Runoff - BBG
GOP Still Poised To Capture Narrow House Majority - Politico
Democrats Hold On To Key Governorships - Politico
Biden Intends To Run In 2024 With Announcement 'Early Next Year' - FT
Midterm Election Results Boost Biden 2024 Hopes, Strategists Say - RTRS
Covid Curbs Increased In China Factory Hub Guangzhou As Outbreak Balloons - BBG
China $131B Singles’ Day Faces Stagnation After Scandals - BBG
China Economic Tsar Public Message, Warning To Future Policymakers - SCMP
China Property Crisis Imperils $1.6T Of Local State Debt - BBG
US Dollar Advances Ahead Of Inflation Data - RTRS
Yen Speculators Bow To Japan’s Stealth Strategy As CPI Looms - BBG
Oil Falls For A Fourth Day As China Covid Concerns Grow - RTRS
Alaska’s Pricey Crude Is Pushed Out Of China By Russian Oil - BBG
Gold Traders In Wait-And-Watch Mode Ahead Of US Inflation Data - RTRS
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3750
Technicals
Primary support is 3750
Primary upside objective is 4118
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 3920
Failure below 3750 opens a test of 3694
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .9950
Technicals
Primary support is .9950
Primary upside objective is 1.0284
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.01
Failure below .9900 opens a test of .9800
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.9800 (1.25BLN), 0.9815-25 (711M)
0.9850 (310M), 0.9860-70 (1.4BLN), 0.9900 (1.33BLN)
0.9925-35 (448M), 0.9950-55 (1.15BLN)
0.9990-00 (2.59BLN), 1.0015-25 (861M), 1.0055-60 (611M)
1.0065-75 (705M), 1.0090-00 (1.85BLN)
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GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1260
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1260
Primary upside objective 1.20
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1650
Failure below 1.1260 opens a test of 1.1170
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1400 (309M), 1.1450 (787M), 1.1600 (572M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8725 (431M), 0.8750 (352M), 0.8790-00 (615M)
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USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 147
Technicals
Primary resistance is 147
Primary downside objective is 143.25
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 145
Acceptance above 147 opens a test of 147.70
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 145.00 (1.02BLN), 146.00-05 (665M), 146.50 (381M)
147.00 (1.36BLN), 147.50 (320M), 148.00 (480M)
EUR/JPY: 145.00 (352M)
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AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6330
Technicals
Primary support is .6330
Primary upside objective is .6590
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6520
Failure below .6330 opens a test of .6270
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6500 (651M), 0.6530 (229M), 0.6600 (375M)
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BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 17800
Technicals
Intraday 17800 is primary resistance
Primary downside objective is 15000
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 15500
Acceptance above 18000 opens a test of 19000
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!