Daily Market Outlook, November 8, 2022
“Asian markets retain a bid tone overnight, the outlier remains Chinese equities which have failed to take the positive lead from European and US markets overnight. Overnight data from Australia showed continued deterioration in both business and consumer sentiment readings. Markets are firmly focused on political developments in the US, polling suggests that Republicans are favored to take control of the House of Representatives, the Senate races remain too close to call. With President Biden’s popularity plumbing new lows there is a decent chance that Republicans wrestle control of both houses, this result would significantly hamper the Biden’s administration to make any meaningful policy headway in the second half of his term, further frustration for the Biden administration is seen with former President Trump setting the stage for a Presidential run in 2024, this would essentially see the clock running on the 2024 race as soon as next week. Markets appear poised for a red sweep in the US which will be seen as positive for markets, weighing on the Dollar and US Yields, as the Fed will likely have to take up the baton of economic support as the fiscal impulse from the government will be significantly impeded if not totally neutralised...”
Overnight Headlines
Biden: GOP Win Will Roll Back Help For ‘Struggling’ Families - BBG
Trump Will Make A "Big Announcement" On Nov 15 - RTRS
China Reopening Hopes Keep US Dollar On Guard - RTRS
FTX Token Plummets As Market Fears Possible Alameda Contagion - CoinDesk
Biden Predicts Democrats Will Win The Senate - The Hill
Poll: Biden Approval Ticks Lower As Democrats Brace For Midterm Losses - RTRS
US Monetary Policy Tighter Than Benchmark Rate Suggests - RTRS
Fed’s Barkin: Fed Will Stick To The Task Of Curbing Inflation - BBG
EU Dims Hopes For A Price Cap To Contain Soaring Gas Costs - BBG
EU Aims To Dispel Criticism On Ukraine Aid With €18 Billion Plan - BBG
Eurozone Grapples With Coordinating Energy Support Plans As Recession Looms - RTRS
ECB’s Lagarde: ECB Must Bring Inflation Back To 2% - BBG
Germany To Spend €83.3 Billion To Subsidize Energy Prices - BBG
Germany Should Hike Taxes On Rich To Finance Relief Packages - RTRS
Oil Prices Fall As China Demand, Recession Concerns Outweigh Supply Woes - RTRS
Gold Stalls As Investors Brace For US Inflation Data - RTRS
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3730
Technicals
Primary support is 3730
Primary upside objective is 3994
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 3920
Failure below 3695 opens a test of 3630
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .9890
Technicals
Primary support is .9890
Primary upside objective is 1.0284
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.00
Failure below .9815 opens a test of .9630
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.9800 (1.06BN), 0.9900 (201M), 0.9950 (603M),0.9970-85 (1.42BN), 0.9990-00 (1.022BN), 1.0020-25 (673M), 1.0050 (468M)
GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1320
Technicals
Primary support is 1.1320
Primary upside objective 1.20
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1650
Failure below 1.1290 opens a test of 1.1150
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1500 (603M)
USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 148.10
Technicals
Primary resistance is 148.10
Primary downside objective is 143.25
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 146
Acceptance above 148.50 opens a test of 149.70
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: EUR/JPY: 146.00 (243M)
AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6400
Technicals
Primary support is .6400
Primary upside objective is .6590
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6520
Failure below .6350 opens a test of .6280
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6250 (307M), 0.6275 (714M), 0.6300 (325M),
0.6390 (225M), 0.6450 (1.73BN), 0.6500 (494M)
BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 19100
Technicals
Intraday 19100 is primary support
Primary upside objective is 22191
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 21460
Failure below 19000 opens a test of 18600
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!