Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs SP500 Positioning & Key Levels 3/6/25
Goldman Sachs US Equity Positioning and Key Levels
FICC and Equities | 2 June 2025 |
Below is a concise recap of key GS positioning metrics:
Summary:
1. CTA Corner:
- After purchasing $103 billion in global equities last month, CTAs are now expected to be net sellers across all scenarios globally and in the US over the next week. Currently, CTAs hold a long position of $17.5 billion in US equities.
2. GS PB Performance:
- Equity Fundamental L/S Performance: Increased by +0.64% between 5/23 and 5/29 (compared to MSCI World TR +1.17%), driven by beta gains of +0.45% and alpha gains of +0.19%, primarily from long-side performance.
- Equity Systematic L/S Performance: Declined by -0.06% during the same period, with losses driven by beta, while alpha remained flat (long-side gains offset by short-side losses).
3. Buybacks:
- Blackout periods are estimated to begin approximately 4-6 weeks before earnings and end 1-2 days post-earnings. The upcoming blackout window is expected to start around 6/16 and continue through 7/25.
CTA Corner Details:
- CTA Flows (Next Week):
- Flat market: Sellers of $1.79B ($260M out of the US)
- Rising market: Sellers of $2.49B ($381M into the US)
- Declining market: Sellers of $17B ($5.5B out of the US)
- CTA Flows (Next Month):
- Flat market: Sellers of $1.35B ($201M into the US)
- Rising market: Buyers of $5.27B ($5.7B into the US)
- Declining market: Sellers of $123.9B ($36B out of the US)
Key SPX Pivot Levels:
- Short-term: 5657
- Medium-term: 5793
- Long-term: 5538
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!