Swissy Pushes Higher Following SNB Meeting
Dovish Hold From The SNB
USDCHF remains firmly higher today after the SNB rates meeting yesterday. The bank held rates unchanged, as expected, but bulls were caught off guard as the bank struck a less hawkish tone in its assessment and guidance. Although the bank’s inflation forecasts were revised higher, SNB chief Schlegel signalled that the bank was seeing no second-round effects and view the inflation price shock as a temporary phenomenon. The bank also adjusted the language used in the meeting statement, removing the phrase about its willingness to intervene. Taken together, these developments have been viewed as leaning to the dovish side and traders are less convinced over the prospect of future tightening.
SNB/Fed Divergence
For USDCHF, the divergence in market expectations is now very clear given the raft of hawkish fed commentary we’ve heard this week. Market pricing for a Fed hike next month has risen to around 70% from around 50% at the start of the week. Next week’s US labour market report will now be key for USD direction. Any fresh strength in the data should see tightening expectations rising further, pushing USDCHF up higher near-term.
Technical Views
USDCHF
The rally in the Swissy has seen the market breaking out above the .8263 level to test the bull channel highs. The move is seeing some initial resistance here. However, while price holds above the .8204 level, focus is on a continuation higher in line with bullish momentum studies readings, targeting .8342 next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.